I watched both the Democratic and Republican conventions and found them to be radically different. On the Republican side a more cerebral nuts and bolts convention and on the Democratic side a more “win people’s hearts strategy”.
Anybody that has read my other blogs posts pretty much knows that I think, regardless of who wins the upcoming election, the US economy is pretty much going to fly into the side of a mountain.
My concern in this whole process is how fast this might happen. My feeling is that ultimately an Obama victory will accelerate this process into a 2-4 year time period while a Romney victory might stave this situation off for 4-8 more years.
Here are my thoughts on both:
Obama………unemployment gradually continues to fall into the low 7% or high 6% range as more people move out of the work force and onto welfare and social security disability. Ultimately the U6 number (combined underemployed and unemployed) will wind up in the low 30% range.
Romney……..unemployment gradually rises at high or higher than 9-10% as more people come back into the workplace seeking employment the economy gets a slight boost but the current high U6 number prevents a rapid acceleration for the economy. Unemployment by year 3-4 will still be in the high 7% range and not enough to get the US economy out of the dumper.
Stimulus vs. taking a knife to the Federal Budget
Obama……..Continues to pump the economy with an ever weakening US dollar until the currency collapses….expect this around QE4 or QE5. We loose the US Dollar as the world reserve currency and hyper inflation ensues. Expect to see gasoline at $7/ gallon
Romney…….Takes a machete to the Federal Budget in order to make an attempt to bring it into balance. With the lack Federal spending and small business having not yet recovered the US remains in a long term recession or even a depression.
Obama……….Tax increases on the wealthy, small business owners that run S corporations, and of course the internet sales tax with its 9800 different tax scenarios. Middle class crumbles, massive unemployment, and the worlds largest number of working poor now reside int he United States.
Romney…….. Aggressive trickle down economics strategy cuts business and investment tax rates to near zero in efforts to employ more people and thus more tax revenue. While some employment will happen tax revenues will be so low that basic government services shut down. Business’ have already adjusted to having fewer people in their operations.
Obama…….Socialized medicine has arrived, healthcare rationing ensues, overall quality of care plummets dramatically and costs skyrocket while the US struggles to combat the obesity and Alzheimer’s epidemic.
Expect to see third world medical care.
Romney……Does not fully repeal Obamacare thus leaving an equally large mess to clean up to try to achieve some level of balance. Healthcare costs skyrocket and many find themselves uninsured.
So basically choose your poison. Regardless how you feel about either side what’s going to happen is going to be super ugly.
Take the next few years to do everything to you to prepare yourself for a dramatically world.